Live indicator · Real interest rates
One number does more to set the price of gold than almost any headline: the real interest rate — what it actually costs, after inflation, to hold cash instead of gold. Here's where it stands right now.
See the full picture
Live indicator · Energy & inflation
What refiners earn turning crude into diesel and gasoline. When crude falls but these margins stay high, fuel inflation is still in the pipeline, and that matters for rates, the ECB and gold. Daily closes from U.S. EIA data.
See the diesel and gasoline cracks
Live indicator · Dollar & rates
Every inflation number ends up weighed in three places: interest rates, the dollar, and gold. The Fed’s broad dollar index, the Treasury curve from 3 months to 30 years and the real yield, updated every night, with the inflation calendar and what each release did to the metals.
See the dollar and the curve
Live indicator · Precious metals
Gold/silver, miners against gold and juniors against majors: which part of the metals market is leading. Daily closes every evening, with the week’s calendar and a desk note.
See the ratios
✦ Member indicator · Energy & geopolitics
Day of the closure, physical Brent against futures, the diesel crack, visible transits and every published estimate of the oil still flowing, side by side.
Open the tracker
✦ Member indicator · Gold & silver
Gold’s head-and-shoulders neckline, the $4,200 bull–bear line, the measured target and silver’s $61 support, plus the oil-to-Fed chain behind them, checked every evening.
Check the levels
Insights
Follow the evidence. Build your own view.
✦ In development · The dollar
The Titanic Turn: The Dollar at the Lid
Updated 4 October: the dollar index closed the week at 101.93, through the lid of its 18-month range, and stopped at 102, the 50% line of the 2021–22 rally. A trader’s map with the lights, the midterm record and the levels that decide the turn.
Read the map
Trade it · Prop trading
Prop Trading, Explained by a Funded Trader
How futures prop-firm evaluations work, the trailing drawdown that fails most traders, and a calculator to size gold, silver and oil trades against the rules.
Open the guide
New analysis · Sovereign debt
France and Switzerland: A Gap Wider Than the Euro Crisis
France now pays about four percentage points more than Switzerland to borrow for ten years, 1.7 times the 2011 peak, and the gap is widening just as fast. Why 2026 is a flight from France rather than a flight to Switzerland, the fair comparison, and what it means for gold.
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New analysis · Energy & inflation
The Strait Is Closed. The Oil Is Flowing.
Ship trackers show Hormuz almost empty, yet oil keeps flowing: for every tanker seen, seven to nine sail dark. Dark transits, ship-to-ship relays and pipelines keep the crude moving, and the squeeze has moved to diesel, where it feeds European inflation and the ECB's dilemma.
Read the analysis
New analysis · Market mechanics
Gold Has Three Prices
London, New York and Shanghai usually agree on gold. When they don't, the gap tells you who is really buying. From the 2025 tariff rush to January 2026, when Shanghai drove the top and then pulled the floor away.
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Market mechanics · Oil & copper curves
Why Oil Can Fall $7 Overnight Without Anything Happening
Brent's November contract expires on 30 September. How futures curves, backwardation, contango and expiry week really work, and why copper now trades on two curves pointing in opposite directions.
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Market note · Silver, oil & rates
Silver's Bad Monday: Oil, Rates and Leverage
Hormuz talks stall, Brent tops $100, Fed hike odds jump and a crowded silver trade unwinds. Plus the gold chart levels to watch and Friday's jobs report.
Read the note
Physical metal · Dealer directory
Precious Metals Dealer Directory
Established dealers, mints, vault platforms and IRA providers across Europe, the Americas, the Middle East, Africa and Asia-Pacific, with what is different in each market. A directory, not a ranking.
Browse the directory
New analysis · Confiscation risk & custody
Could Europe Take Your Gold?
125 years of gold confiscation, debt above 100% of GDP in five euro states, and a continent rearming. Why where your gold sits matters more than how much you hold.
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New analysis · China & physical demand
China Took the Leverage Out, Not the Gold
A dozen Chinese banks are ending retail margin trading in gold and silver and steering clients to physical metal. The question it raises: what are you actually holding?
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New analysis · Confidence, part one
When Rates Rise and Confidence Doesn't
The Fed hiked to a five-year high in September. Real yields hit levels unseen since 2008. Gold barely flinched — here's the gap, and what's filling it.
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New analysis · Confidence, part two
The Confidence No One Priced
A closed strait, a byproduct nobody manages, and a shortage now running through copper, nickel and fertiliser at once.
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New analysis · Confidence, part three
The Third Confidence
What a central bank is actually for, and what it means for the real-yield line on the panel when that question stops being settled.
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New analysis · Confidence, part four
Confidence, Tokenized
A wholesale digital euro built explicitly to counter dollar stablecoins, $310 billion in Treasury-backed tokens, and a currency question two central banks no longer take for granted.
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New analysis · Sovereign risk & geopolitics
The Sovereign Debt Loop
How war, inflation, weak growth, AI and geopolitics are reshaping the global economy.
Read the analysis
Featured article · Central banks & gold
Gold Has Overtaken US Treasuries
Explore the shift in central-bank reserve holdings, gold purchases and Treasury exposure—and the questions it raises for individual savers and investors.
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New analysis · Global finance & gold
BRICS Wants to Reform Global Finance: What Does It Mean for Gold?
Understand the IMF and World Bank reform agenda, local-currency finance and the evidence to watch for gold investors.
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Continue your research
Free reading
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Read the opening pages and complete table of contents, including the practical appendices.
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Framework
Connect the moving parts
Explore real interest rates, geopolitics, supply and demand, instrument choice and risk.
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